The fallout in Columbia was brutal. The United States Dollar has about bending in value from the Won, with USD-KRW moving from just above 800 at the begining of 1997, to 1600 through the year's finish. Local stock exchange experienced similar fate, as did every area of economy. Possibly most telling was a massive spike in unemployment, because the unemployed rate jumped to just about double numbers, about 9 million people unemployed.
This author observed the aftermath top notch, throughout certainly one of his business outings to Columbia in
The nation has rebounded nicely since that time and grew to become certainly one of Asia's most dynamic financial systems. KRW strengthen substantially reaching level 900 against USD in 2007. The stock exchange has recorded double digit gains in four from the last 5 years, attaining 32% in this past year alone. Korean the likes of Samsung Electronics Co, and Hyundai Motors Co, established themselves as a few of the world's leading companies.
Everything has transformed in 2008. Challenges like high oil prices, inflation, exterior debt and account deficit have shaken traders confidence. Even though many nations have experienced output of funds in to the dollar, this method grew to become especially painful in Columbia. The Won is just about the Asia's worst carrying out currency, losing 20% up to now. Stock exchange wasn't any better, falling 25%, with farther sell of stocks expected.
These developments produced broadly spread evaluations to situation from 1997 and were quick to become selected through the press. Worldwide Financial Fund disagrees with this particular assessment and expressed confidence by stating that Columbia is really a mature and resilient economy with country's basic principles much more powerful than about ten years ago. Korean financial government bodies, however, felt obligated to do something by intervention on Wons account on view market. This appeared to prevent the bleeding for the time being.
What should be expected next? In most reality, 1997 type sell is very unlikely. As South Korean economy is cooling lower along with the relaxation around the globe, Seoul may not have the ability to stop bleeding from the stock exchange but there's one factor they are able to do- keep intervening with respect to its currency. Unlike before, you will find huge foreign reserves, about 250 billion dollars price of, plus they may be used to support Won.
Most likely scenario, by this writing, is ongoing fall of Korean stocks, in sync with larger stock declines. The Won also needs to keep shedding, however in a lot more measured and steady pace. Central Bank hasn't pointed out exactly what the comfortable level for USD-KRW is, but because we observed over last couple of years, major trends are extremely effective and may undergo any "line within the sand' attracted by anybody.
Current rates are around 1150. Despite expected interventions, Won can certainly weaken to 1300 and perhaps 1400, but far lacking the prior low of 1600. Also, one should not search for a quick move, but instead steady depreciation, lasting a couple of years. This isn't a scenario for active traders, however for individuals preferring long term positions current development might present good chance for farther selling of KRW.
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